An example of what feels off: Metaculus is currently running a climate tournament (which is great!). I'm an ideal participant for this, I've worked in climate for almost a decade, I like forecasting + Metaculus, they're offering money! But it feels... boring. I can't find it within myself to commit a few hours even though I genuinely find the topic interesting.

What can we do to increase engagement on this tournament? Short of adding a lot more $$, we have to figure out a way to make it fun or competitive. Did anyone actually ask the climate community what would spur them to participate? This is the type of work I want to do with this project.

@Austin I agree, Manifold has brought much needed levity to the community! Some clarifications:

• Impact: My goal is to make forecasting feel fun. While we can measure some impact in terms of community engagement/impressions/etc, this project is about prospecting for creative ideas that create buzz. When the judges assess impact in September, they should ask whether this project made a splash within the community or in wider culture. How wonderfully vague :) I'd literally create a Manifold question on this, something like "Does the forecasting community feel more "fun" thanks to this project?"

• Audience: In general, the audience I'm aiming for is more casual than a Metaculus power user. I want to connect with people like me, who enjoy forecasting but not enough to constantly update predictions, and I want to connect with people with very little exposure to forecasting but would enjoy it if someone (us) found the right angle. My family/friends keep asking me to create more ways for them to [casually] forecast, so I know there's demand here.

The more I talk about it, the more I think forecasting could use at least a few casual brands -- we need ways to engage casual users, which will also bring in more power users. This project is a way to potentially create one of those brands.