Project Valuation Basis:

The original post for Future Fund Worldview competition was considered the most relevant submission (voted by readers), and was one of the most upvoted and least criticised public submissions (see https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/future-fund-worldview-prize?sortedBy=relevance).

This submission has been carefully amended to directly address the change in call, whilst retaining and emphasising the valued elements indicated as judging criteria (e.g., uncovering a new, fundamental consideration that should inform the beliefs of Judges, and clarifies important underlying concepts).

Expected Value:

Prize #1 (Award #1): $50,000 : Win Probability = 4% : Expected Value = $2,000

Prize #1 (Award #2): $50,000 : Win Probability = 4% : Expected Value = $2,000

Prize #2 (Award #1): $37,500 : Win Probability = 7% : Expected Value = $2,625

Prize #2 (Award #2): $37,500 : Win Probability = 7% : Expected Value = $2,625

Prize #3 (Award #1): $25,000 : Win Probability = 10% : Expected Value = $2,500

Prize #3 (Award #2): $25,000 : Win Probability = 10% : Expected Value = $2,500

Total Expected Value = $14,250

Conservative Expected Value Adjustment = $13,000